Part 1. Roulette
It is obvious that the purpose of the roulette is to motivate the player to regularly enter the game. It is also obvious that the player has a very limited number of attempts (per day). Therefore, the simplest (unchanged) and acceptable uniform pseudo-RNG should be applied to the roulette. Also I should note that the key with a 1-2% chance is comparable to the zero slot in the casino. The prize must correspond to the chance. In our case, the key is not a prize yet. It is just one more chance to get the prize. So “one key per month” is a mockery, but not a motivating prize. One blueprint per 1-2 month is a prize. Think about this.
Anyway... What do I have in practice? Between December 2016 and March/April 2017, I received about one key per month from roulette. In that period I obtained 12-14 dwarven keys (roulette, dungeons, auction). Having no dwarven blueprints and opening the chests with these keys, I obtained ... ZERO blueprints.
4-5 months, 12-14 rare events (not only from roulette) and ZERO motivating prizes.
But you are still sure that you are too generous to the players?
Well, what happened next? Next was the April patch, which increased the chances of prizes in roulette. In 2-3 days after the patch I received one more key. This was the last key obtained from the roulette. From then until now (about 450-500 spins) I did not get any keys from roulette. And I know the players who got 0 keys for a longer period.
Do you really think that this is normal and the roulette's behavior reaches its goals? Or maybe its goal is precisely such behavior? Maybe you forgot that I haven’t a lot of free spins to smooth such drawdowns? Maybe you forgot that key isn’t a prize itself and shouldn’t be so rare and so non-uniform (for single user experience)?
Part 2. Heroic bags
I started farming bags in the end of December 2016. I got one legendary item in Jan 2017 and one more legendary item in Feb 2017. And that’s all! No legends from March to now. Instead I got tons of great and flawless Ice Walkers as well as Primal Horns. Those:
a) the problem with the uniform distribution of the type of items (during almost a year I didn’t get some of items at all, but a tons of Ice Walkers
b) the problem with the uniform distribution of rare items (ZERO legends from March to October)
Same question: maybe you forgot that such drawdowns are incompatible with so limited amount of free bags (2-3 bags per 2 days).
Part 3. Tell me again about what a rare accident is
(but don’t forget to explain why I so frequently encounter SUCH nice accidents)
I got 7 consecutive fails while fusing misc legendaries into mythics about a month ago. Then I started to accumulate new legendaries. A week ago was Fusion Event and I decided to fuse the accumulated high-level legendaries. As a result, I got 2 successes out of 11 attempts of 50/50 fusions. Next, I performed 9 fusions of 26-lvl items and got 8 successes!
I screened all of these results (but forgot to screen “3 Candy + 1 Sacred Scepter”, so created it from previous screen):
- 7 consecutive fails of different levels in the past (don’t remember what actually was fused)
- 9 from 11 high-level fusions failed (almost whole week was wasted)
- the boundary between the chains of failures and successes passes strictly at the moment of switching the level
- 8 mythical 26-level items successfully fused in 9 tries and several hours
Of course, I can recall the extremely frequent epics in the low-level items (such as Pendant 14, Remedy 13, Staff 6 and so on). About 10-15 epic items for 200-300 crafted items. There is such a regular. Not only for me, but for my neighbors too.
But we continue to hear that the formulas are completely independent of the level, as well as the simplest rand() call. It's just a rare unluck. Yep, very rare.
Thank you for amazing game experience! And hope you will get the same!