How to make the cauldron work?

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Molly
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How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Molly » Sun Feb 19, 2017 4:54 am

They says "you will get 0.3 of epic". Here is last 5 hours of fusion:


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Six epics instead of ~12...

Someone can say that such a result is normal and 40 trials is too few.
No, such a result is rare in 40 trials:

Image

(and probability to get from 0 to 6 epic items in 40 trials is 0.0191)

As you can see, with a probability of ~0.98 I have not had to see this result.


What attempts I managed to write down a bad result? The first attempt.

Is this the very first statistics I wrote? Oh no, this is the second. And here's the first (10 hours that I spent several days ago):


Image


Better? A little. So I have already recorded two bad results in a row. And no encouraging results.

Why does this (meaninglessness of announced probability) happen regularly and frequently? I'm only just started recording and immediately received a rare disappointing result? Yah?

1. If everything was generally well, then I would not have the idea to do such experiments.
2. If I regularly receive about a half from the expected quantity, then why I don't observe so big deviations in other direction? Why do I NEVER was flooded by epic items, but greens are regularly floods me (while probability of greens even less than probability of epic items)?

Some sort of one-sided accidents, you don't think so?

I began to take notes, wanting to dispel my "fears" and see adequate results on paper. But I saw the results, which were worse than "fears".

Will be glad to hear a professional explanation to why the desired quality so steadily (almost always) deviates to the negative direction.

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Abqu
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Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Abqu » Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:09 am

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pier
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:13 pm

Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby pier » Sun Feb 19, 2017 10:38 am

Molly wrote:Will be glad to hear a professional explanation to why the desired quality so steadily (almost always) deviates to the negative direction.


It doesn't, but it might look like it because people don't make posts when they have (above) average luck.

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Abqu
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Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Abqu » Sun Feb 19, 2017 5:15 pm

pier wrote:
Molly wrote:Will be glad to hear a professional explanation to why the desired quality so steadily (almost always) deviates to the negative direction.


It doesn't, but it might look like it because people don't make posts when they have (above) average luck.


I did nearly 250 same-item CF fuses in one sitting on December 1st.

Image

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bloop
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Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby bloop » Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:28 pm

Abqu wrote:
pier wrote:
Molly wrote:Will be glad to hear a professional explanation to why the desired quality so steadily (almost always) deviates to the negative direction.


It doesn't, but it might look like it because people don't make posts when they have (above) average luck.


I did nearly 250 same-item CF fuses in one sitting on December 1st.

Image

but you also once proved that some fuse %s are incorrect, they were under reporting the actual %, rite?
Image

Molly
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Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:41 pm

Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Molly » Sun Feb 26, 2017 7:22 am

12 great + 12 good = 12 great

All fine, man! You should craft hundreds of hundreds to negate such strikes!
Ok then. But seriously, where are my flawless strikes? Where they are, CloudeCade?
Every session I catch strikes of undesirable quality. Is this a question of my luck only?

P.S.: As for helmets, the frequency of flawless helmets remained at 50+ percents, even after 25x4 fusions.

----------

At least three my friends complained of more frequent green strikes in crafting after the last patch.
I even got four common Runic Mail in one batch!

Next, you craft desired item again and again. More and more. And as a result do not get any epics.
Let's craft several batches of Hat lvl 2 after that:

Image

2 epics! 20 great/flawless! Only 14 good.
First crafted hat was epic.

My mastery is 1700 and average stats for me is about 52% comm-good / 47% great-flaw / 1% epic-legend

CloudCade, I made it about half an hour ago at the first attempt. You can check the logs.
Two days ago I crafted about 10 epics in about 200 crafts after switching to a very small pre-craft.


In your opinion, it's fun to shake the random number generator? It makes the game more interesting or what? Or do you simply have nothing to do?

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Shiroe
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Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Shiroe » Sun Feb 26, 2017 8:20 am

Molly wrote:My mastery is 1700 and average stats for me is about 52% comm-good / 47% great-flaw / 1% epic-legend

Which is close to the numbers listed in the last link of Abqu's sig, yet you formulated it complaing-y...
as of 2016-09-11: Player level: 44, City: Eolythes, Blueprints: 517, Mastered: 419, Crafted: 78.61K
(except for tier 1 and some tier 2 artifacts mostly running my shop/gearing self sufficient)

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Abqu
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Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Abqu » Sun Feb 26, 2017 4:24 pm

Shiroe wrote:
Molly wrote:My mastery is 1700 and average stats for me is about 52% comm-good / 47% great-flaw / 1% epic-legend

Which is close to the numbers listed in the last link of Abqu's sig, yet you formulated it complaing-y...


Yeah I dunno. Seems like they're complaining about things that have been tested and retested and upset they're getting similar results.

Feone
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Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Feone » Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:14 am

Hmm..

I'm pretty certain they're not using a true random number generator. A lot of the random results are far too streaky for that. (More in line with a semi-random continuous thing like perlin noise.)

It wouldn't at all surprise me if this means some of the percentages are off, or certain habits can cause continuous bad luck.

Molly
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Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:41 pm

Re: How to make the cauldron work?

Postby Molly » Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:22 pm

Shiroe wrote:
Molly wrote:My mastery is 1700 and average stats for me is about 52% comm-good / 47% great-flaw / 1% epic-legend

Which is close to the numbers listed in the last link of Abqu's sig, yet you formulated it complaing-y...

No, it's better than by the formula
And it is not the subject of complaints

Average (of the crafts) is fine (if counted from the large volume).
Distribution is 5hit.

Batch of 9 good items (with probability 0.55 for each) can occurs in 4 from 1000 batches.
I observe at least 1-2 such butches every day.
Strong deviations occur much more often than it should be in simple dice rolling.

Series of epic items starts right after switching to low-level crafts. I showed it above.
"Luck" is different for different items.

A couple of months ago these effects were not as pronounced.
Last edited by Molly on Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.


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