[Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

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BobTheBuilder
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby BobTheBuilder » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:03 am

WingDingo wrote:I never wanted to read this. I have been avoiding reading this on purpose. What have you done. With all the 0% break chances I already have. What have I been doing.


Glad to help! What made u read it?
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WingDingo
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby WingDingo » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:50 am

I am writing up a multi-topic Hero Guide for new players. I wanted to make sure that I understood the order of break prevention from skills, so I did a forum search for previous discussions. This was the most recent discussion.

I kept thinking, "on a D20 (20 sided dice)," it's possible that I could roll (8) 20s within 42 attempts. How does that make any sense that I'd be safe doing that? Then I did the math to confirm your math, and realized that while I can technically hit (8) 20s in 42 attempts, not only is it near impossible, but my Shop Heroes equivalent makes it not even close to the presented "worst case 5%s all around." I have 32 instances where I'll need to prevent breaks across all heroes, and 30 other slots for Level Cap 45 and Level Cap 50 heroes that don't have equipment assigned (where I don't care if the items break). I have 113 natural 0% break chances or breaks prevented by Resourceful.

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WingDingo
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby WingDingo » Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:30 am

I was watching Oscellarium stream yesterday. He's reported an instance or two of some griefers about break chance, similar to what I received months ago regarding my party compositions and desire to get to 0% break on items. I've decided to find the break-even point for quantity of 0% break chance items = 1 effective Support.

At all (42) 5% Break Chance Items in a party of 6 (42 items).
With 0 break prevention, for more than 7 breaks the odds is 0.0999%
There is a 0.1% chance that something will break with 7 support, meaning 1 in 1000 chance.

At (32) 5% Break Chance and (10) 0% Break Chance Items in a party of 6 (42 items).
With 0 break prevention, for more than 6 breaks the odds is 0.0868%
There is a 0.1% chance that something will break with 6 support, meaning 1 in 1000 chance.

At (24) 5% Break Chance and (18) 0% Break Chance Items in a party of 6 (42 items).
With 0 break prevention, for more than 5 breaks the odds is 0.0962%
There is a 0.1% chance that something will break with 5 support, meaning 1 in 1000 chance.

At (16) 5% Break Chance and (26) 0% Break Chance Items in a party of 6 (42 items).
With 0 break prevention, for more than 4 breaks the odds is 0.0857%
There is a 0.1% chance that something will break with 4 support, meaning 1 in 1000 chance.

At (10) 5% Break Chance and (32) 0% Break Chance Items in a party of 6 (42 items).
With 0 break prevention, for more than 3 breaks the odds is 0.1028%
There is a 0.1% chance that something will break with 3 support, meaning 1 in 1000 chance.

At (5) 5% Break Chance and (37) 0% Break Chance Items in a party of 6 (42 items).
With 0 break prevention, for more than 2 breaks the odds is 0.1158%
There is a 0.1% chance that something will break with 2 support, meaning 1 in 1000 chance.

At (1) 5% Break Chance and (41) 0% Break Chance Items in a party of 6 (42 items).
With 0 break prevention, for more than 1 breaks the odds is 0.05%
There is a 0% chance that something will break with 1 support.

The point of all of this nonsense is that going for 7 Support is overkill in many cases. The 5% is the worst case scenario. Since it's near impossible to even have all 5% break chances, it is always going to be safer odds than 1 in 1000, by a fairly large margin. By virtue of going for 0% break chances in the first place, I think I'm closer to the (18) 0% Break Chances, and therefore having 5 Support is overkill by the normal standard.

I'm writing this out for my own personal reference when forming parties so that I don't needlessly sacrifice high power armor with a break chance for a Noble Plate, or example.

The other point is that Supplier is treated at a worse option to Supplier. This is correct, but it is not a totally useless skill. If you were to stack all of the 3 free instances of Supplier (5% + 10% + 15% = 30%) with 6 instances of Support, you end up with a better result than 7 Support with 0 Supplier.
With 6 Support + 30% Supplier, for more than 0 breaks the odds is 0.0879%
There is a 0.1% chance that something will break, meaning 1 in 1000 chance (rounded, but is better un-rounded).

But since you can get the same effect for 1 Support versus 6 Supplier, Support wins hands down.

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Dastran
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby Dastran » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:53 pm

Awesome breakdown!

It is also worth mentioning that we often do our math with 5% in mind because of the way legendaries cap out at 5%. We also do it with 5% in mind because the math gets hard if we factor in individual probabilities.

The thing is, if your items are not extremely far from the hero's level, it probably has a break chance well under 5%, providing a portion of the benefit expected from having unbreakables.

For instance, compared to 5% breaks, if you have 7 Support and all of your items are under 3% break chance, then the probability of actually losing gear plummets to a mere 0.0031%, or 1 in about 32,250 missions. Yup. 32 times less likely just by dropping 2%. Even relaxing to 6 support at this point leaves you with a 0.023% break chance, or 1 in 4,269 missions.

I personally overdo it a little, partly because I nabbed a premium Support II item, but also because it makes rotating heroes and changing my teams worry-free. It is nice to know, though, that with a spattering of Support and Resourceful, I will likely not see gear break before my phone does.

Cheers!

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Shiroe
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby Shiroe » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:26 am

Dastran wrote:I personally overdo it a little, partly because I nabbed a premium Support II item, but also because it makes rotating heroes and changing my teams worry-free.

Same. Everybody who doesn't have Support II/III as hero skill is now running a support item for me. Total overkill for 6-hero teams with 9-12 support, but allows me to send solos or random duos chest farming without too many worries...
as of 2016-09-11: Player level: 44, City: Eolythes, Blueprints: 517, Mastered: 419, Crafted: 78.61K
(except for tier 1 and some tier 2 artifacts mostly running my shop/gearing self sufficient)

BobTheBuilder
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby BobTheBuilder » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:46 am

Dastran wrote:Awesome breakdown!

It is also worth mentioning that we often do our math with 5% in mind because of the way legendaries cap out at 5%. We also do it with 5% in mind because the math gets hard if we factor in individual probabilities.


Its easy to do with my calculator.
Http://sh.tstr.no

There u can put in break chance for each item and let the script calculate every possible combination to get the break chance
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Creator of Shop Heroes Break Calculator and SH Raid Loot Calculator
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Holy-Fire
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby Holy-Fire » Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:48 pm

I've created an alternative break chance calculator with a few additional features. It is available at https://goo.gl/3Ixnr7 and the thread to discuss it is here.

KoalaKingHuggies
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby KoalaKingHuggies » Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:58 am

BobTheBuilder wrote:
Dastran wrote:Awesome breakdown!

It is also worth mentioning that we often do our math with 5% in mind because of the way legendaries cap out at 5%. We also do it with 5% in mind because the math gets hard if we factor in individual probabilities.


Its easy to do with my calculator.
Http://sh.tstr.no

There u can put in break chance for each item and let the script calculate every possible combination to get the break chance

i believe your calculator has a couple of small mistakes, i ran the math and its in some cases close but not accurate. please check your math

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internetz
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby internetz » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:51 am

probably not going to get a response to this zombie thread... the post you quoted was over a year ago... :lol:

Tethys
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Re: [Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.

Postby Tethys » Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:08 am

Yeah if we could please avoid reviving old threads that'd be great. Thanks.

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