Fusion Upgrades

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Re: Fusion Upgrades

Postby Arty » Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:44 pm

Shiroe wrote:I've been rummaging around the tradehouse for myth+ a bit:
so, break chance:
myth+1 = 0.75 * myth (0% == below 0.5% for +/-6?)
myth+2 = 0.5 * myth? (0% == below 0.5% for +/-9?) (only have 1 data point)

myth+1 caps at 3%, myth+2 caps at 2% break

I did the same, checking TH for power and break chance numbers. All break chances I checked match the known break chance formula, with values of 0.03/0.02 for Myth+1/Myth+2, i.e. myth+1 = 0.75 myth and myth+2 = 0.5 myth like you said. Also the 0.5% break point for setting to 0% seems to be the same, at least for Myth+1. For this I pressured a friend into opening his never-really-played low level account to check: Falcon Eye (Lvl 8) in Myth+1 resulted in:
Melina Lvl 2 (dark gray) - 0.5% (0.5315% according to formula)
Melina Lvl 3 (dark grey) - 0% (0.453% according to formula)
Garreth Lvl 1 (light gray) - 0.6% (0.578% according to formula)
Garreth Lvl 2 (light gray) - 0% (0.498% according to formula, quite tight below 0.5%)

So I am quite certain that the old break chance formula is still in place. Wonder how the next levels will be. And if the break chance will reach level-independent 0% at some point.

Shiroe wrote:power:
myth+1 = 1.2 * myth
myth+2 = 1.4 * myth?
myth+3 = 1.6 * myth?

Only saw +1 and +2 so far and can confirm.

I am also making my own low level myth+X items to check fusion formula. Seems that enchanting uses the same formulas as fusion, just with new parameters for each new quality. Based on the parameters as used in akerson's fusion calculator, I found those so far:
  • Quality numbers still seem to increase by 1 for each quality (checked up to myth+2).
  • Edit: The A-values for myth+1/+2/+3 are 9/8/7.
    (Technically, we can multiply an arbitrary non-zero factor, but those numbers are nice so far.)
    So it might continue with 6/5/4/etc. at least until myth+9 (can't be 0 for myth+10).
    The first few ratios of subsequent A-values are nicely close to one, which will lead to quality mixes for optimal fusions, thus reducing the amount of required myth items (from huge to slightly less huge).
  • Edit: The B-value for myth+1/+2/+3 are 3.05/3.1/3.15. It might just grow by 0.05 for each quality. It means that the fusion result shift towards lower levels will slowly intensify with higher qualities.
  • If anyone has some items myth+3 and higher, feel free to post some screenshots of them in the fusion cauldron, so we can figure out the fusion parameters and calculate optimal fusions.

There is also one other question to answer to determine optimal fusions. And that is how item loss in case of fusion failure is determined in a premium fusion slot. Assuming than in a regular fusion slot each item has the same chance to be destroyed (I never actually tested that), I see two plausible ways how it might work in a premium slot.
  • Variant 1: Each player-provided item has the same chance to be destroyed upon failure.
  • Variant 2: Each item (incl. the bonus copy) has the same chance to be destroyed, but if the copy is picked then the original is destroyed instead. So effectively the copied item would be twice as likely to be destroyed than any other.
  • In case anyone wonders, it doesn't happen that nothing is destroyed (because the copy was chosen).
I started to collect data to determine one way or the other. So far I have only about 90 data points, but so far they seem to indicate that it works like variant 2. Will have to collect more data.
Edit: I have a lot more data now, now suggesting that Variant 1 is correct.

There is another things that really troubles me. During the data collection for the destroy mechanism I also kept the data from the successful fusions, and this looks very unexpected. The premium slot mechanic is possibly bugged. (Or possibly just chooses the bonus item differently than the client if items have the same highest value. I need to check how many such cases are in my data.) I'll post more details tomorrow, need to sleep right now.
Something fishy is definitely going on here. The result distributions are not at all as expected. See bug report for details.

Edit: Another thing I tested now is how the cauldron (at least on the client) determines which item to copy. As expected it is the item with the highest gold price. This is the actual gold price for the player, i.e., including any gold price increase from production progress. (I find this a little annoying because it might give an incentive to NOT progress with some "fusion fodder" items to keep their value low.)
If there are multiple "most valuable" items in the cauldron then it's a little complicated. (If the items are only added then the first one is copied, but if items are also removed then the order of adding and removing seem to matter.)
Last edited by Arty on Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Fusion Upgrades

Postby AcidBasilisk » Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:28 pm

Edit: Yes, people have done the maths further than myself. Long story short, it's a whale trap - viewtopic.php?f=4&t=8951

Has anyone done the numbers for the requirement to get a Myth+10? I did, and let's presume a couple of things.

First, is using an upgraded slot. This means for highest fusion chance, you need 4 items of the lower quality. So 4 +9s, 16 +8s, etc. Adding in Myth+0, we end up with a figure of 4^11 for the number of legendaries required. What's that number?


Yes, 4.2 million legendary items required to fuse using 4 each time to get myth+10. And that's presuming a 100% success rate. But, of course, it's not. Even the 5 leg fuse is 63%. So let's add just that percentage and see how many we need. We take our number, and divide by 0.63. New number?


Well, that's a lot of legendary items. If we get generous, and say by using all 5 fusion slots you can bang out a legendary every 60 seconds, how long will that take? We might as well say one per minute. So, how many hours is that?

110,963 hours. 4,623 days. 12 years. (Even with a 100% success rate, it's still just shy of 8 years)

And you know the best part? That's just fusing the legendaries. At one minute per. It doesn't take into account fusing the mythicals, and the failure chance of those fusions. Or sleep. Or work. Or having any time off at all.

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Re: Fusion Upgrades

Postby inVoh » Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:01 pm

Feels like they need to add a new building to the city to boost fusion time if they want anyone to even come close to getting to +10. You can even cap the boost like the Inn. I'm surprised they haven't done this yet. Would be a good gold sink. Would be fine if it was similar to castle and was 50M per boost for like 25% reduction time on fuse.

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Re: Fusion Upgrades

Postby Arty » Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:21 pm

Added some more info to my post above.

inVoh wrote:if they want anyone to even come close to getting to +10.

Why are so many people assuming that +10 is intended to be reachable? I think the design intent was more likely to set up some unlimited fusion options, with the possibility to trick gamble addicts into spending thousands of dollars in their attempts to reach some extra high item qualities.

AcidBasilisk wrote:attempts at an estimate

Well, starting from arbitrary assumptions and then adjusting it by doing complete nonsense math, it's quite surprising that your number is not too far off (only a factor of at most 10) from what I expect (if the fusion parameters turn out to be what I have in mind).
But as I said, I don't think this is meant to be reached anyway.

Also, there are already some other threads with complaining about how unrealistic is to ever reach +10. It would be nice if we could leave this thread here to mere data finding, without judging how good/bad the system is.

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Re: Fusion Upgrades

Postby Arty » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:39 pm

Finally got a myth+2 item, so I could figure out the fusion parameters (see in the edited post above).

If anyone has a myth+3 or even higher, please put it into the caulron together with something of different level/quality, make a screenshot of the displayed numbers, and post the screenshot here.

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