Break rate of items is a lie

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MI-Wolf
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Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 6:55 am

Break rate of items is a lie

Postby MI-Wolf » Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:55 pm

I have had this happen before and it happened again. This time it happened with Prof Charles. He came back from a quest and his hat was broken. It is the same level as him, level 40, with a break chance of 0.9%. I got him the same hat again and on the very next quest he came back and his hat broke again. The probability of this happening twice to the same item to the same hero tells me that the break chance that is shown on the items is a lie.

We need the real break chances of the items listed. There is no way that this could happen 2 times in a row to the same hero for the same item.

The break chance is not 0.9% on this hat. What is the real break chance? What is the real break chance on all items? Why does it say that the break chance is 0.9% is the break chance is much higher?

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Lionstar
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Re: Break rate of items is a lie

Postby Lionstar » Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:22 pm

I will try to be very polite here but that's how RNG works. Its unlikely to happen but it is possible. You make it sound like what happened to you should have not been possible.

Of course if you can replicate the same outcome numerous times in the row then yes we have something to talk about but 2 is not a very persuasive sample.

MI-Wolf
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 6:55 am

Re: Break rate of items is a lie

Postby MI-Wolf » Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:00 pm

You are right that is not how an RNG works. What they are inputting into the RNG is not defined and hidden from users. The probability of the same item breaking for the same user 2 quests in a row is very low. Not impossible. Since this has happened before to me. Means that it has happen to other users as well.

The RNG math is wrong, or the break percent chance for an item is not correct. Which means there are other factors in play. The other factors being, I would think, the level of the dungeon, the level of the hero, the level of the item. Which means that the break chance is not 0.9%. CC injects other variables into the equation. It is not a simple, lets role on this item and see if it breaks.

I'm just saying the correct break chance needs to be displayed.

Kim!
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Re: Break rate of items is a lie

Postby Kim! » Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:20 pm

Image

Given you had already observed one item break and assuming independent events, the odds of a second break are about 1 in 100... that's not particularly far fetched. A little improbable but definitely not impossible.

From what I remember item breaks lined up pretty well with the expected outcomes, but I haven't had any breaks in about 10 months so I don't have any anecdotal evidence for you. (However, the math from displayed break chances seems to play nicely with skilled gear/support calculations others have done.)

Have you considered adding support gear to your teams? I'm not sure which packs you have but a couple balmungs (giant pack) or midas gloves (heroic 1) can go a long way towards preventing item breaks. :) Personally I wouldn't fuss over item quality unless you've got support or you're going for unbreakables, the chances of someone smashing something is just too high when you've got 25 heroes running with 7 gear each.

If you haven't seen it already, this post has a nice breakdown of the odds of breaking something: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=7105

And this post is a great introduction to thinking about building skilled teams/using support in general: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=6237

Anyway, probably not the answer you were looking for but might be worth a read if you're tired of item breaks :)

Feone
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Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:33 pm

Re: Break rate of items is a lie

Postby Feone » Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:21 pm

Noble plates are a fairly accessible f2p alternative, and of course the heroes with their natural support skills.

FrosT
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:53 pm

Re: Break rate of items is a lie

Postby FrosT » Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:01 am

[Guide/Tool] - Say goodbye to item break.
http://forum.shopheroes.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=7105

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Shiroe
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Re: Break rate of items is a lie

Postby Shiroe » Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:14 am

People have reported before of gear they bought to replace a piece of broken gear breaking the next quest, but that's likely because that one has the highest probability of annoying people and getting them to complain about it out of all the break roll sequence results. (just like rolling "4" on a 4x D6 if that's the only bad outcome or an injury on Sewers is percieved as more annoying than one on a T2 quest. ;) )


(I wonder if that last example is partially the reason why high levels prefer to buy their Shiny Gems on the tradehouse instead of questing for them. ;-P )
as of 2016-09-11: Player level: 44, City: Eolythes, Blueprints: 517, Mastered: 419, Crafted: 78.61K
(except for tier 1 and some tier 2 artifacts mostly running my shop/gearing self sufficient)

MI-Wolf
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue May 09, 2017 6:55 am

Re: Break rate of items is a lie

Postby MI-Wolf » Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:00 am

Thanks Kim and Frost your replies are very helpful!


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